Trade Shocks and Gender: The China Shock’s Labor Market Impacts in Brazil

Author

Paulo Felipe Oliveira

Published

May 1, 2026

Working Paper

Paulo Felipe Oliveira

Abstract

The China Shock is one of the most significant trade shocks in recent history. This analysis investigates its impact on the Brazilian labor market, focusing on gender differences, using a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model. The results indicate that the China Shock led to a reduction of approximately 0.5 percentage points in total employment participation for both men and women. This translates to a loss of about 400,000 manufacturing jobs compared to a scenario without the China Shock. Given the initial differences in sectoral labor allocation by gender, the sectoral contributions and spatial effects differ for men and women. The welfare effects for workers are positive in aggregate terms, but differ by gender: 0.6% for men and 0.4% for women.

Keywords

Trade shocks, general equilibrium, gender differences, labor market, Brazi

JEL Classification

F16; F17; J16; D58.

Paper

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